I have always wondered whether some people who are supposed to be more knowledgeable than simple mortals like me or may be you get things right when it comes to predicting the future.
As Yogi Berra said “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. ”
So I tried looking for what Indian govt or Planning Commission had in mind in early 2000 when it was predicting the future telecom penetration aim .
Have a look at this http://planningcommission.nic.in/aboutus/committee/wrkgrp/wg_telecom.pdf
I assume that government or Planning Commission is supposed to make really rosy predictions because thats what politicians have been doing from time immemorial(or whenever they started talking ) .
So in 2001 Planning Commission said that its policies are going to be such that India by 2010 will have a teledensity of around 15% (read page number 8 of above link).
To quote “Make available telephone on demand by the year 2002 and sustain it thereafter so
as to achieve a tele-density of 7 by the year 2005 and 15 by the year 2010”.
As of today 25th July 2011 the teledensity is surely above 60% (please i know lots of people having multiple sims and not using them hence I have taken a conservative rounded off value ).
Now to take into perspective the absolute D grade prediction by Planning Commission you have to see that it was wrong by over 4 times that too being too conservative. Amazing .
I wonder where else Planning Commission is going to make such conservative predictions and people of India are going to surprise them by achieveing 4 times better performance in a span of just 8-10 years .
I am waiting for 2020 !!!!!!!