Predictions about Tablet sales in India and why they are WRONG
I just came across article in Economic times where we have following comments
“Tablet is essentially a content consumption device than a content creation device… It will never be able to eat into PC sales, especially in emerging markets such as India”
Vyomesh Joshi, Executive Vice President, Hewlett Packard
“Tablet has become an aspirational device for people who possess more than one computer. But India will never see PC sales being hit by tablet sales, due to the sheer low per capita income of the country”
Ashwini Aggarwal, Former Executive Director, MAIT (MAIT, Manufacturer’s Association of IT Industry, is an apex not-for-profit body representing and driving the eco-system of the Indian IT)
Well it just made me think whenever some one senior(and supposedly intelligent and has vision) makes really big future prediction with a word like NEVER .
Well here is an excerpt from HP Quarterly conf call with analysts :
“In Q2, consumer PC revenue declined over 20% year-over-year. Even though our consumer PC expectations had been cautious, the steepness of our Q2 decline is greater than what we had anticipated. We are remaining cautious in the near term .”
Here is tablet sales by Apple only(well in fact only Apple matters when I am talking about tablets):
“Apple sold 9.25 million iPads during the quarter, a 183 percent unit increase over the year-ago quarter”.
Infact apple has sold a total of 25 Million iPads in around 15 months.
Assume all of Apple sales were in Developed markets and NONE in emerging markets like India . Even the dumbest of person can say at least somebody is buying tablet where he might have bought a laptop if tablets did not exist .
Now that somebody need not be from the Developed country only . If someone thinks that per capita income of India and China is very low and hence tablets will never eat into pc sales then he is the most ignorant person on planet earth . And believe me the price of tablets are not too high by any standard at all . They are almost equal to what a full sized laptop costs .
HP(and all computer makers) is dead scared of tablets and hence has brought its own touchpad(other computer makers and mobile phone companies also are trying to copy Apple) in market to compete with iPad.
In India I do not have any sales numbers from any companies which show how many tablets have they sold but walk in to any Croma or ezone store and you would see wide variety of tablets on display from samsung to acer to blackberry and of course Apple . And they are selling though I cannot quantify it .
With all these data I cannot believe that really senior people can think that a product costing almost same as a highest end mobile phone (iPad 1 starts from Rs. 23000 only while a lot of mobile phones cost more than Rs. 23k) will not eat into PC market share .
People just think Indians are so poor that they cannot even afford buying tablets . I absolutely agree with the pathetic state of India’s per capita figure but India and China are so huge that even 0.1% of people (who are really rich and mind you for India that equals almost 9 million people) will be enough for companies with really good tablet offering to succeed and have a good return on investment .
Those companies who will ignore India because they think Indians are poor do so on your own peril . (please learn from Apple who though was late by almost 8-10 months in bringing in iPad 1 to India introduced iPad 2 as soon as it could and boy its selling like hot cakes in India as well .)
My prediction- Tablets in emerging countries are going to eat into laptop sales . How much I dont know but its easy to find out . Any person buying a tablet means a laptop is not sold . Do the math !!!!!
Here is the proof of it :
iPad is now 11% of PC market
According to IDC’s estimates, worldwide personal computer sales excluding tablets were 84.4 million during the quarter .
Looking at it another way, assume that most iPads were sold to consumers, and that overall PC sales are split about halfway between consumers and businesses. In that case, the iPad has already sucked up about 20% of the consumer PC market.
Lets say if iPad was lined up with all the other computer makers it would be the 4th Biggest computer brand in the world –after HP, Dell and Lenovo …oh yes ahead of Acer .
If the macs(3.95 million) were added to iPad’s sales last quarter total will be 13.2 million with apple being 2nd largest computer vendor in the world after only HP (with 15.3 million).
And after this look at the confidence(ignorance) of HP VP saying Tablets will not eat up the market share of PC(laptop) . Its truly Alice in Wonderland Situation .