Author Archives: amitkumarblog
Being a father of an infant ensures consistently on a regular basis that something or the other will happen to your kid which will make your heart ♥ break out with a pain you never knew could existed. Of course more of it if you are the mom.
So what happened to my princess?
She was all of 9 months when one fine morning after having her usual dose of morning milk (insanely expensive Similac Advance 2 priced at $8.4 for 400g pack or $21 for 1 kg with approximately ) she vomited almost all of it. We didn’t really took that as a serious sign and she too didn’t seem much troubled apart from the discomfort of vomit. But after around 3 hour when her next feeding time came she was not really wanting to drink the milk. And then in the meantime she had two loose motions which were more liquid like than the usual .
We ignored both conditions . However after her 3rd feed she once again coughed and vomited the milk. And now finally our alarm bell stated to ring, albeit slowly . We started trying to give her some water. Of course I knew how dangerous Diarrhea or loss of water is for any human being particularly for a child.
Now she was having total count of loose motion frequency till 5pm equal to 6 times.
Again by 7pm she didn’t drink and 3 more loose motions. Total count 9 and motions were becoming even more liquid type.
So we decided to visit a local clinic. The doctor gave us some medicines which are all liquid and taste horrible and smell awful. I can almost make a rule which says any infants’ syrup is deliberately made to taste like crap. I mean just smell that and you will know.
And here my daughter’s first different 1 st “quality” comes in picture. She just can’t drink even a drop of any medicine directly in her mouth. We had tried a number of times in last 9 months to no avail. She auto vomits any and every medicine. So we come back with 3-4 syrups and at home try to give them trying one over other. Each time she vomits. The only way to give medicine is by mixing it in the milk she drinks.
Now here’s the 2nd really different quality of my daughter. She can never drink milk or any liquid if she is awake. She may sip one or two sips but doesn’t drink. Yes she has all her feed only when she is asleep. So how does her 4-7 feeds happen per day ? Well as soon as she starts to feel hungry she starts to cry but at same time starts feeling sleepy. So we prepare the milk and lay her down on lap and then give her the milk. So she sleeps with the nipple in her mouth and drinks milk only after she is fully in sleep. And not once no matter how hungry she has been or in how noisy environment she is she has drunk milk without being in sleep. I don’t know why or how she got this habit but may be because I have been feeling her after almost every 2 hours while she was couple of months old in the night in such a way that she would drink milk only when she asleep. This habit of hers was badly affecting her medicine intake capability because add the habit of sleepfeed with medicineonly in milk and if she is unable to sleep due to loose motion then we cannot give her the medicine which will ameliorate her condition.
The last I had vomited was when I had motion sickness in a car on hilly terrain. Try and remember last time you had vomited. Believe me the feeling is too awful.
My daughter had done vomiting 5 times in 9 hours almost all of what she was fed had gone out. Twice the vomit was due to medicine we were trying to give.
So by 8pm we came back and tried to give her medicine followed by vomiting. But to no avail. She seemed to have lost appetite and sleep. But the loose motion now was a bit under control. Maybe because she had not had anything in her stomach so what would she pass.
Time went by and in between we kept trying to feed her oral rehydration solution which we had got from medical store (replenishes the lost salts, potassium – basically is a life saver).
We made a mistake here as well while preparing the solution. The correct way to prepare is mix one packet in 1 litre of water or whatever is written on the packet. You can use the solution for 24 hours. We being too “intelligent” mixed some powder in some water and gave her to drink. This is a big mistake which were to find out later on . Because then there will be either less or more of the salts in the solution which will either way harm the kid/person who is drinking it.
9 pm and she had some water and some milk but not possible to give her enough medicine. And 2 more motions. But next hour she seemed to be getting a bit normal. Playing, giggling.
In between we keep trying to give her ORS liquid as much as possible. But now by around 10.30 pm the Diarrhea starts to worsen. She had one loose motion completely liquid. Then after we clean and in 5 min another one…. Clean… Another clean…… Another…..!!!!!! First time she is drinking ORS directly from bottle while being awake. She is thirsty. She is loosing water. And then she vomits whatever she drunk.
Countless loose motion continues. She drinks….. She vomits…. Passes motion…. Drinks….. Vomits… Agonising to see her thirsty and vomit almost all of 100 ml she drinks…..
For almost 1.5 hours this continues.
Finally it was enough for me. We decide to go to the hospital KOKILABEN Mumbai, it’s supposed to be made by India’s richest person Ambani. And it is top notch. New hospital. Clean.
We rush in car after packing her in a diaper. This is a BIG BIG mistake. Will explain later. We reach hospital by 2 AM in emergency ward where the least experienced doctors I guess kind of trainees are there. By that time she must have passed at least 5-7 more motions in diaper.
Doctors give an injection of Emeset which is the one which helps you to NOT vomit. Then a REVELATION happens. Doc says there is no medicine as such of loose motion which can be given to a baby of 8 months age.
I just could not believe that one of the biggest killers in the world Diarrhea didn’t have a medicine. The only thing that you can do is ensure that you replace the fluid in the baby as much as possible and WAIT.
Basically you wait until your kid keeps passing umpteen loose motion, see her face getting pale with loss of water, eyes sunken, see her crying, see her thirsty……. And WAIT pray and hope that Diarrhea NATURALLY stops. And we say amazing medical advancement. Crap.
3 AM – So after the emeset injection she didn’t vomit. We feed her more of correct ORS solution mix. But the loose motion doesn’t stop. Why should it stop? After all no medicine exists for loose motion for infants.
We decide to admit her and first thing which doctor says to do – prick my daughter’s hand to pass the IV and saline water.
So we finally change her old diaper which she was wearing for almost 3 hours and was passing all her loose motions in it. Why didn’t we change earlier? Because for around 45 min after coming to hospital we had not yet decided to admit and hence we didn’t have a place where we could have put her and allowed her to pass the motion.
. There were red rashes inside of her thighs and there was pain to her each time she passed motion because with fecal matter it got aggravated while we tried to clean her. We showed that to the doctor and then he says oh yes the rashes would be there. After standing with a crying baby for an hour in front of doctors he says after that you should have clean diaper else rashes will be there. WT hell.
Advice – no matter how messy which place gets if you have a baby passing loose motion you must clean her up after every motion. Never keep same diaper for more than 5 min . Else it will aggravate the redness and bring about rashes due to infection which will be huge problem.
4AM – My daughter is lying, crying, still passing loose motion with one hand held forcefully by me-lest she moves it here and there resulting in her IV fluid connection being ruptured.
5AM – The loose motion now has slowed down a bit too around 5-7 in 1 hour.
7 Am – finally my baby sleeps. We have had exactly 24 hours without sleep. Now either me or my wife has to be awake till baby is sleeping else she may move her hand and the IV injection line may come out.
Luckily within two days we are discharged from hospital. Watching my sleeping baby whose eyes had almost starting to sulk with just one 8 hour bout of Diarrhea I understand now when Bill Gates says we should really focus on Diarrhea to save hundreds of thousands of kids from dying. Why she had w was obviously she put something in her mouth she should not have. Anything she gets she puts in her mouth. So we just try to be a bit more careful with her toys and watch what she is putting in her mouth, if you can I mean.
Why 3G will Never take off in India
Read on for a completely different view on Why 3G market and its potential in India is not so good as it is made out to be.
The fundamental problem is that many products are created to be sold, not used- Yanagi Japanese Designer
Are you one of those people who believe that 3G may be a bit low today in India but is going to take of really big time in the near future ? Huge amount of data consuming public is imminent because you see so many people with smartphones around ? May have heard telecom companies paid a bomb to get 3G spectrum and govt for a change made a lot of money . Surely you think that telecom companies are not stupid to overpay for spectrum and hence in a country of around 600 million active connections they are going to milk money by 3G data usage by public.
Unfortunately this is not going to happen in even near future. The a seemingly simple consensus view – 3G will take off really big in India, it just needs a bit of time say 2-5 more years– just as it happened in developed countries.
What I am saying is that 3G will not take off as per predictions of almost all analysts and telecom companies. It will remain a fringe/negligible percentage of overall telecom users in future (maximum % of active users may not go beyond 10% even in next decade because 4G/LTE/BWA may be adopted and 3G almost skipped). The only way 3G usage can shoot up is when some company can make a phone with User Interface which is even simpler and delightful than iOS of Apple(and all of its copycats) and of course price it below Rs. 5000/7000 or $130 (unlocked of course).
Read on for a completely different view on why 3G will not take off as per almost everybody’s expectation. I promise your time in reading will be well utilized. Why 3G and 4G will NEVER take off in India Why 3G and 4G will NEVER take off in India.
Just Dial IPO Analysis
This would be an analysis of Just Dial IPO which was refiled with SEBI in August 2012. The earlier one was in 2011 but was cancelled due to adverse market conditions. This post will be a bit long but worth reading because of unique business of Just Dial .
First some disclaimers– If you read this and invest in IPO when it comes out and LOSE money don’t sue me. If you make money contact me on my email/blog and I will try to take 1-2% of your Profits J (how is that for free advice). If everything fails and you really want to sue me GO ahead. This is a country where Kasab is still alive, hale and hearty, eating biryani from tax payer’s money and no sight to be hanged. What do you think you can do by suing me?
I had been an employee of Just Dial for around 9 months which was the best learning experience of my lifetime as I had the privilege to interact with Mr. Mani and his brilliant senior management team of Just Dial. This gives me unique insight in one of the really different businesses not just in India but in the whole world. There is a not a single business on the planet which works almost exactly/close to how Just Dial makes money on that scale. (Rs. 250 crores odd revenue and Rs. 50cr worth profits last yr with 0 debt and return on capital close to 40+% for last 3 years).
My analysis will be primarily based on the basic parameters on how Buffett would like to invest in a company like
- High return on capital employed with little or no debt with strong free cash flow for the owners and pricing power.
- Strong durable competitive advantage
- Able and honest management
- Available at a fair price (this is the 1st question) and
- Predictable earnings/industry (this is the second question).
If you are more of financially inclined person Financial Data and Calculations Just Dial with all the numbers and you can directly see that pristine looking financial statements and ratios people dream of.
Here is a one line business model of Just Dial – When people need to buy something (goods or service) from some shop/business they call up Just Dial which in turn provides that data (business phone number, address) free of cost to person calling but Just Dial charges the business owners to make sure their phone number/address goes to the caller. How simple yet how difficult to beat.
I have put ratio analysis right at top so that you have a basic idea about financial strength of the company and no need believe in some kind of ‘STORY’ as it generally is with overhyped losing businesses (aka organized retail , Suzlon , Infra , DTH) .
Ratio Analysis (A dream for any CEO)
|Liquidity Measurement Ratios|
|Days Inventory Outstanding(DIO)||0||0||0||0||0|
|Net Sales Per Day||1.9||2.5||3.6||5.1||7.5|
|Average Trade Receivables||4.2||0.5||5.6||5.4||0|
|Days Sales Outstanding(DSO)||2.1||0.2||1.5||1.0||0|
|Cost of goods sold (taking it as total expenses)/365||1.8||2.2||2.9||3.9||5.5|
|Average Accounts Payable||24.3||25.3||40.3||47.0||21.9|
|Days Payable Outstanding(DPO)||12.9||11.2||13.8||11.8||3.9|
|Cash Conversion Cycle = DIO+DSO-DPO||-10||-11||-12||-10||-3|
|Profitability Indicator Ratios|
|Operating Profit Margin||4%||10%||21%||23%||26%|
|Net Profit Margin||2%||8%||14%||15%||19%|
|Return on Capital Employed (PAT/Total Capital)||2%||7%||15%||15%||21%|
|Return on Net Worth(PAT/NW)||5%||16%||29%||31%||51%|
|NA as it’s a debt free company|
|Cash Flow Ratios|
|Operating CF to Sales||20%||7%||26%||32%||33%|
|FCF Return on Net Worth||23%||0%||39%||44%||65%|
|FCF to Operating CF||60%||0%||72%||68%||74%|
|Valuation Ratios still mystery as no price declared|
That’s a very bad heading but I could not think of anything else .
What is evil — “ Evil is Knowing Better but doing worse “
Mr. Daniel Kahneman(the nobel winner) is one the most amazing thinkers of modern era who has just completely changed the way we look at the world and the decisions taken by people in the world. His brilliant book(http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637 ) is a 20 times read. You can just keep reading again and again and again – discovering new things every time you do that. It makes you understand why probably you took a decision when ideally/rationally you should not have done so. So why the critique post ??
Well having read the brilliant book Thinking Fast and Slow by Mr. Daniel Kahneman I noticed something strange in every single question he had ever asked for framing his theories mostly related to monetary gambles/chance/risk taking . They will NOT apply completely to the thousands of Bankers, Traders, Lenders, Insurance Sellers(who are or should I say were too big) –who are taking decision under risk . The reason the theories will NOT apply is NOT because decisions are complex or theories completely wrong or they are using System 1 instead of System 2 but because the crucial elements (situations/conditions) are almost always neglected in almost all questionnaires for any psychology/logic tests undertaken by any researcher.
I searched for various of his articles and the references he himself used for writing those and I could not find the most important factors which affect decision making under risk in real life organization/situation .
The choice of picking a decision using rational calculations or System 1(intuitive) based on prospect theory or whatever is secondary to the conditions surrounding the decision making. The conditions surrounding decision making are NEVER extraneous or too unimportant in real life.
This analysis will look at the financial risk taking while showing that prospect theory(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory) cannot explain the decision making in financial world today when complete picture of conditions which leads to reckless risk taking is taken into account i.e. the incentives (bonuses), Superiors’ orders, managing other peoples’ money, too big to fail and implicit guarantee from all Central Banks around the world that you will be saved even if you completely screw up (the whole firm or consequently even the economy).
I would love if Mr. Daniel Kahneman applies all his theories of decision making to the bankers and financial industry as we know today to show how effectively it predicts the actual actions of these Lords of Finance. I am sure the theories cannot be applied to decision making of bankers which have brought terrible misery to millions around the world and amazing riches to bankers and financial institutions.(if you do not believe this stop reading!!)
I argue that what happens in REAL world more than 99% of the time when real people (almost all in some sort of organizational set up) are taking real decisions in organizations which can be observed by anybody is not explainable completely by theories like prospect/certainty effect/loss aversion/utility/System 1 or 2, etc.
I am not a professor who can catch 50 students and give them a sheet of paper with 5 logic questions (each with 2 choices) and then extrapolate them to real life decision making. I will ask the same questions which have been asked in the book Thinking Fast and Slow at the end of the write up. The only difference will be – I will use context/surrounding events before anyone has to decide which option to choose. The responses I am sure will be exactly normal as what happens in real life but the responses will violate most of the existing theories regarding decision making under risk.
(NSE 532638 | SHOPERSTOP)
Shopper’s Stop Analysis and Future Expected Returns (Investors Stop???)
Here is kind of analysis which I guarantee that you would have never read or heard anywhere else on Shoppers Stop (Organized Retail), its future growth potential limits and the expected return from point of view of equity investor in Shoppers Stop or Pantaloons or Trent (Westside).
Please read the below analysis and always keep in mind the following 4 simple facts:
• Indians on an average spend close to 60% of their expenditure on FOOD.
• Organized Retail have just 1% or even less share of FOOD sales in India.
• Indians spend around 10%-11% only on clothes, beauty products and footwear.
• Almost 80%-90% of sales of Shoppers Stop or Pantaloons or Trent (Westside) are clothes , beauty , accessories and footwear products and less than 10%-15% comes from food sales and that too comes from great brands of food (Nestle-Maggi , Cold Drinks , Biscuits ,Milk products ,etc which are razor thin margin business)or commodities which are again almost zero margin products.
With the above thoughts firmly in mind here goes my analysis.
With Organized Retail currently being around 6-7% of total retail sales I am predicting that in next decade or two it will not reach even close to 18-20% of total retail sales and I’ll back it up with logic.
This prediction is completely opposite (downright negative if you want to say) compared to every single projection available in India and abroad by any institution on future of Organized Retail. The prevailing wisdom is Organized Retail will soon by 2015 or so (add 1-2 years more if you like) capture almost 15%-18% of total retail sales in India and in the process the companies like Shoppers Stop or Pantaloons or Trent (Westside) are great buys even at P/E of 35+. Again I have not seen sell ratings on any of these companies except one by Nirmal Bang. Rest all are positive on this sector as a whole factoring in years of future growth at a return on capital which is at least twice of what these companies have shown in last decade of phenomenal growth when in fact for 4-6 years credit was as cheap as air.
The consultants , analysts , investment bankers and investors may have got it all wrong in trying to figure out how much expansion can the Organized Retail logically have in India given India’s unique expenditure pattern , infrastructure , real estate and electricity situation which is completely different from anywhere in the world .
This happens because a typical person who is consultant/analyst working in a company which brings out studies on growth potential of Indian retail may have say a package of minimum 12/15 lakhs per annum and his spending is less than 10% on food but he buys jeans at Rs. 4000, shirts at 2000 ,shoes at Rs. 5000 , perfumes at 3000 , LED TV at 50000 and some furniture at 25000 from the mall and he just cannot connect with how real India spends money on even though the data is right infront of his eyes.
These guys’ brains just short circuit and use System 1 (part of type of thinking of brain which uses shortcuts to make things easy) as opposed to System 2 (which is purely rational and calculative) as explained brilliantly by Daniel Kahneman in his amazing book http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637
Infact there would actually be a complete limit on how much Organized Retail can ever grow and capture the total retail expenditure in India (My guess is around from 6-7% today to 18-22% in coming 2 decades and that’s being too positive)
Read more for completely different way to look at Shoppers Stop !