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Being a father of an infant ensures consistently on a regular basis that something or the other will happen to your kid which will make your heart ♥ break out with a pain you never knew could existed. Of course more of it if you are the mom.
So what happened to my princess?
She was all of 9 months when one fine morning after having her usual dose of morning milk (insanely expensive Similac Advance 2 priced at $8.4 for 400g pack or $21 for 1 kg with approximately ) she vomited almost all of it. We didn’t really took that as a serious sign and she too didn’t seem much troubled apart from the discomfort of vomit. But after around 3 hour when her next feeding time came she was not really wanting to drink the milk. And then in the meantime she had two loose motions which were more liquid like than the usual .
We ignored both conditions . However after her 3rd feed she once again coughed and vomited the milk. And now finally our alarm bell stated to ring, albeit slowly . We started trying to give her some water. Of course I knew how dangerous Diarrhea or loss of water is for any human being particularly for a child.
Now she was having total count of loose motion frequency till 5pm equal to 6 times.
Again by 7pm she didn’t drink and 3 more loose motions. Total count 9 and motions were becoming even more liquid type.
So we decided to visit a local clinic. The doctor gave us some medicines which are all liquid and taste horrible and smell awful. I can almost make a rule which says any infants’ syrup is deliberately made to taste like crap. I mean just smell that and you will know.
And here my daughter’s first different 1 st “quality” comes in picture. She just can’t drink even a drop of any medicine directly in her mouth. We had tried a number of times in last 9 months to no avail. She auto vomits any and every medicine. So we come back with 3-4 syrups and at home try to give them trying one over other. Each time she vomits. The only way to give medicine is by mixing it in the milk she drinks.
Now here’s the 2nd really different quality of my daughter. She can never drink milk or any liquid if she is awake. She may sip one or two sips but doesn’t drink. Yes she has all her feed only when she is asleep. So how does her 4-7 feeds happen per day ? Well as soon as she starts to feel hungry she starts to cry but at same time starts feeling sleepy. So we prepare the milk and lay her down on lap and then give her the milk. So she sleeps with the nipple in her mouth and drinks milk only after she is fully in sleep. And not once no matter how hungry she has been or in how noisy environment she is she has drunk milk without being in sleep. I don’t know why or how she got this habit but may be because I have been feeling her after almost every 2 hours while she was couple of months old in the night in such a way that she would drink milk only when she asleep. This habit of hers was badly affecting her medicine intake capability because add the habit of sleepfeed with medicineonly in milk and if she is unable to sleep due to loose motion then we cannot give her the medicine which will ameliorate her condition.
The last I had vomited was when I had motion sickness in a car on hilly terrain. Try and remember last time you had vomited. Believe me the feeling is too awful.
My daughter had done vomiting 5 times in 9 hours almost all of what she was fed had gone out. Twice the vomit was due to medicine we were trying to give.
So by 8pm we came back and tried to give her medicine followed by vomiting. But to no avail. She seemed to have lost appetite and sleep. But the loose motion now was a bit under control. Maybe because she had not had anything in her stomach so what would she pass.
Time went by and in between we kept trying to feed her oral rehydration solution which we had got from medical store (replenishes the lost salts, potassium – basically is a life saver).
We made a mistake here as well while preparing the solution. The correct way to prepare is mix one packet in 1 litre of water or whatever is written on the packet. You can use the solution for 24 hours. We being too “intelligent” mixed some powder in some water and gave her to drink. This is a big mistake which were to find out later on . Because then there will be either less or more of the salts in the solution which will either way harm the kid/person who is drinking it.
9 pm and she had some water and some milk but not possible to give her enough medicine. And 2 more motions. But next hour she seemed to be getting a bit normal. Playing, giggling.
In between we keep trying to give her ORS liquid as much as possible. But now by around 10.30 pm the Diarrhea starts to worsen. She had one loose motion completely liquid. Then after we clean and in 5 min another one…. Clean… Another clean…… Another…..!!!!!! First time she is drinking ORS directly from bottle while being awake. She is thirsty. She is loosing water. And then she vomits whatever she drunk.
Countless loose motion continues. She drinks….. She vomits…. Passes motion…. Drinks….. Vomits… Agonising to see her thirsty and vomit almost all of 100 ml she drinks…..
For almost 1.5 hours this continues.
Finally it was enough for me. We decide to go to the hospital KOKILABEN Mumbai, it’s supposed to be made by India’s richest person Ambani. And it is top notch. New hospital. Clean.
We rush in car after packing her in a diaper. This is a BIG BIG mistake. Will explain later. We reach hospital by 2 AM in emergency ward where the least experienced doctors I guess kind of trainees are there. By that time she must have passed at least 5-7 more motions in diaper.
Doctors give an injection of Emeset which is the one which helps you to NOT vomit. Then a REVELATION happens. Doc says there is no medicine as such of loose motion which can be given to a baby of 8 months age.
I just could not believe that one of the biggest killers in the world Diarrhea didn’t have a medicine. The only thing that you can do is ensure that you replace the fluid in the baby as much as possible and WAIT.
Basically you wait until your kid keeps passing umpteen loose motion, see her face getting pale with loss of water, eyes sunken, see her crying, see her thirsty……. And WAIT pray and hope that Diarrhea NATURALLY stops. And we say amazing medical advancement. Crap.
3 AM – So after the emeset injection she didn’t vomit. We feed her more of correct ORS solution mix. But the loose motion doesn’t stop. Why should it stop? After all no medicine exists for loose motion for infants.
We decide to admit her and first thing which doctor says to do – prick my daughter’s hand to pass the IV and saline water.
So we finally change her old diaper which she was wearing for almost 3 hours and was passing all her loose motions in it. Why didn’t we change earlier? Because for around 45 min after coming to hospital we had not yet decided to admit and hence we didn’t have a place where we could have put her and allowed her to pass the motion.
. There were red rashes inside of her thighs and there was pain to her each time she passed motion because with fecal matter it got aggravated while we tried to clean her. We showed that to the doctor and then he says oh yes the rashes would be there. After standing with a crying baby for an hour in front of doctors he says after that you should have clean diaper else rashes will be there. WT hell.
Advice – no matter how messy which place gets if you have a baby passing loose motion you must clean her up after every motion. Never keep same diaper for more than 5 min . Else it will aggravate the redness and bring about rashes due to infection which will be huge problem.
4AM – My daughter is lying, crying, still passing loose motion with one hand held forcefully by me-lest she moves it here and there resulting in her IV fluid connection being ruptured.
5AM – The loose motion now has slowed down a bit too around 5-7 in 1 hour.
7 Am – finally my baby sleeps. We have had exactly 24 hours without sleep. Now either me or my wife has to be awake till baby is sleeping else she may move her hand and the IV injection line may come out.
Luckily within two days we are discharged from hospital. Watching my sleeping baby whose eyes had almost starting to sulk with just one 8 hour bout of Diarrhea I understand now when Bill Gates says we should really focus on Diarrhea to save hundreds of thousands of kids from dying. Why she had w was obviously she put something in her mouth she should not have. Anything she gets she puts in her mouth. So we just try to be a bit more careful with her toys and watch what she is putting in her mouth, if you can I mean.
Why 3G will Never take off in India
Read on for a completely different view on Why 3G market and its potential in India is not so good as it is made out to be.
The fundamental problem is that many products are created to be sold, not used- Yanagi Japanese Designer
Are you one of those people who believe that 3G may be a bit low today in India but is going to take of really big time in the near future ? Huge amount of data consuming public is imminent because you see so many people with smartphones around ? May have heard telecom companies paid a bomb to get 3G spectrum and govt for a change made a lot of money . Surely you think that telecom companies are not stupid to overpay for spectrum and hence in a country of around 600 million active connections they are going to milk money by 3G data usage by public.
Unfortunately this is not going to happen in even near future. The a seemingly simple consensus view – 3G will take off really big in India, it just needs a bit of time say 2-5 more years– just as it happened in developed countries.
What I am saying is that 3G will not take off as per predictions of almost all analysts and telecom companies. It will remain a fringe/negligible percentage of overall telecom users in future (maximum % of active users may not go beyond 10% even in next decade because 4G/LTE/BWA may be adopted and 3G almost skipped). The only way 3G usage can shoot up is when some company can make a phone with User Interface which is even simpler and delightful than iOS of Apple(and all of its copycats) and of course price it below Rs. 5000/7000 or $130 (unlocked of course).
Read on for a completely different view on why 3G will not take off as per almost everybody’s expectation. I promise your time in reading will be well utilized. Why 3G and 4G will NEVER take off in India Why 3G and 4G will NEVER take off in India.
Just Dial IPO Analysis
This would be an analysis of Just Dial IPO which was refiled with SEBI in August 2012. The earlier one was in 2011 but was cancelled due to adverse market conditions. This post will be a bit long but worth reading because of unique business of Just Dial .
First some disclaimers– If you read this and invest in IPO when it comes out and LOSE money don’t sue me. If you make money contact me on my email/blog and I will try to take 1-2% of your Profits J (how is that for free advice). If everything fails and you really want to sue me GO ahead. This is a country where Kasab is still alive, hale and hearty, eating biryani from tax payer’s money and no sight to be hanged. What do you think you can do by suing me?
I had been an employee of Just Dial for around 9 months which was the best learning experience of my lifetime as I had the privilege to interact with Mr. Mani and his brilliant senior management team of Just Dial. This gives me unique insight in one of the really different businesses not just in India but in the whole world. There is a not a single business on the planet which works almost exactly/close to how Just Dial makes money on that scale. (Rs. 250 crores odd revenue and Rs. 50cr worth profits last yr with 0 debt and return on capital close to 40+% for last 3 years).
My analysis will be primarily based on the basic parameters on how Buffett would like to invest in a company like
- High return on capital employed with little or no debt with strong free cash flow for the owners and pricing power.
- Strong durable competitive advantage
- Able and honest management
- Available at a fair price (this is the 1st question) and
- Predictable earnings/industry (this is the second question).
If you are more of financially inclined person Financial Data and Calculations Just Dial with all the numbers and you can directly see that pristine looking financial statements and ratios people dream of.
Here is a one line business model of Just Dial – When people need to buy something (goods or service) from some shop/business they call up Just Dial which in turn provides that data (business phone number, address) free of cost to person calling but Just Dial charges the business owners to make sure their phone number/address goes to the caller. How simple yet how difficult to beat.
I have put ratio analysis right at top so that you have a basic idea about financial strength of the company and no need believe in some kind of ‘STORY’ as it generally is with overhyped losing businesses (aka organized retail , Suzlon , Infra , DTH) .
Ratio Analysis (A dream for any CEO)
|Liquidity Measurement Ratios|
|Days Inventory Outstanding(DIO)||0||0||0||0||0|
|Net Sales Per Day||1.9||2.5||3.6||5.1||7.5|
|Average Trade Receivables||4.2||0.5||5.6||5.4||0|
|Days Sales Outstanding(DSO)||2.1||0.2||1.5||1.0||0|
|Cost of goods sold (taking it as total expenses)/365||1.8||2.2||2.9||3.9||5.5|
|Average Accounts Payable||24.3||25.3||40.3||47.0||21.9|
|Days Payable Outstanding(DPO)||12.9||11.2||13.8||11.8||3.9|
|Cash Conversion Cycle = DIO+DSO-DPO||-10||-11||-12||-10||-3|
|Profitability Indicator Ratios|
|Operating Profit Margin||4%||10%||21%||23%||26%|
|Net Profit Margin||2%||8%||14%||15%||19%|
|Return on Capital Employed (PAT/Total Capital)||2%||7%||15%||15%||21%|
|Return on Net Worth(PAT/NW)||5%||16%||29%||31%||51%|
|NA as it’s a debt free company|
|Cash Flow Ratios|
|Operating CF to Sales||20%||7%||26%||32%||33%|
|FCF Return on Net Worth||23%||0%||39%||44%||65%|
|FCF to Operating CF||60%||0%||72%||68%||74%|
|Valuation Ratios still mystery as no price declared|
Dish TV India – A Critical Analysis
Why would a Senior Management Personnel Not answer what is Debt/Equity ratio of company
I was randomly just watching business news channel (whenever I want some fun I put on Biz channels in morning at around 9 AM when guys give ways to make money in next 3-4 hours!!!) and came across startling fact whereby a Dish TV senior management personnel on TV did not answer – what the debt to equity ratio of the company is and gave an evasive reply . (Early week of December)
Couple of days later I heard same thing from someone senior from a company WWIL refuse to answer the Debt to equity ratio question . It was amazing and that led me to dig a bit deep into what are these companies where the management just DOES NOT answer the most basic question – What is the Debt Equity Ratio of your Company ?
Ben Graham’s Advice
I will start off this analysis by quoting the real Guru (Benjamin Graham) who laid down rules of investment around 80 years ago which are:
“You may take it as an axiom that you cannot profit on Wall Street (or Dalal Street) by continuously doing the obvious or the popular thing.”
“What seems to be obvious and simple to the people in Wall Street, as well as to their customers, is not really
Obvious and simple at all . You are not going to get good results in security analysis by doing the simple, obvious thing of picking out the companies that apparently have good prospects — whether it be the automobile industry, or the building industry, or any such combination of companies which almost everybody can tell you are going to enjoy good business for a number of years to come. That method is just too simple and too obvious — and the main fact about it is that it does not work well.”
Here is a tricky and tough(if you can call it with these terms) question for you regarding investing in a particular stock –Will you invest your money to buy stocks of a company whose performance summary is following :
- Talking about consistency it has made consistent losses(Negative Net Profit) for last 7 years with losses increasing from Rs.16 crores to 1600 Crores.
- The cumulative total Net Profit it has made is grand sum of Rs.2 crores on a cumulative 3 year sales of Rs.105 Crores in years 2002-2004.
- Total cumulative losses for last 7 years are equal to almost Rs. 5248 crores ONLY.
- It has NEVER been a free cash flow company in its entire history of existence and its almost impossible that it will have a free cash flow in the coming near future.
- It has a negative net worth for last 3 years and almost sure to have negative net worth in coming 2 years at least.
- It has NOT paid a dividend till date (don’t start to argue that it is behaving like Microsoft, Google or Berkshire) not because it was investing the profit for greater return in business but purely because it just CANNOT pay dividends.
- It is unable to pay back and manage even its working capital to an extent that it has changed working capital limits to working capital term loan(in plain English not enough money to pay you now ,come back after some years).
- Forget working capital it is even unable to pay interest on the loans taken and hence it converted interest on loans from banks funded interest term loan repayable in 9 years including 2 years moratorium (plain English I am bankrupt to an extent I cannot even pay interest even in next two years, and banks happily said YESSS. Try saying to ICICI or SBI that you cannot pay EMI on your home loan because of some emergency in your family for say 6 months or so and see the fun!!!!They will first grab your collar, then your neck, then your house and then they will start talking!!!)
- After being unable to pay money due on time and amazingly ‘requesting’ and getting banks to postpone paying up, the company has in fact been able to secure even more debt from the same bankers.(Try doing that with your car loan or house loan where after you default on payment of even miniscule amount or just a small delay– you are going to be kicked out of office of any bank where you go for loan almost forever or charged a rate which would be absurd).
- Forget paying someone whom you owe money to, the company has gone a step further in NOT paying the TDS (worth 422 crores) and service tax for such a long term(greater than 6 months) that auditor had to mention it in Annual report . (You poor salary earning individual , you do not have a choice , you get the money only after the govt had its cut through the company. Alas the govt can also be fooled by companies like that who take your money and keep using it for as long as possible. )
- A company which actually tried to raise more money than its whole market cap via GDR. Can you believe the ambitions and positive outlook of the company??(Of course you guessed it right what would have happened to GDR )
- The company is so asset starved that security includes intangibles like the Brand name of company(Word secured has a different meaning for these bankers who have lent money).
- Its a company (not a bank) where its Chairman says “realistic estimation of total assets both quoted and unquoted (carried in the Balance Sheet at cost) would exceed Rs 12,000 crores but the market value of the company is around 1/10th of the estimate by the Chairman.(So either market is stupider by 10 times and Chairman is wiser by 10 times or vice-versa ).
- It is perhaps the only company which in its annual reports shows performance comparison to NSE and BSE by showing the ‘Volume’ of shares traded. Yes that’s volumes of share traded and NOT the price because if it shows the price then it would look ‘interesting’ to the say the least. Read further to know about this “Great” company