Two Step Canada PR Process

Pardon for the shitty adv which will be above this!!!

Most important thing. Canada PR is not going to Handcuff you and say you cannot come back to India. Say you wanted a Onsite for 2 or 3 years. And you current company was sending you to Toronto for 2 years would you go? With a chance that your wife or husband can also work? Take it like that if you want to see it as onsite. No one is saying to permanently live in Canada if you apply for PR. Life is SHORT. See you never realised you are now 35+ ..maybe add a 3 yr experience of living in a developed country and then get back to India… Ooooo you cannot adjust after coming back. Ask those H1B rejected guys who have been in US for 10 + years.

Typically this is topic is such a rage like the way it is in India for kids to prepare for IIT/Medical or IAS prep in Delhi.

However I am writing this mostly to let people avoid any so called agents who charge upwards of INR 70000 for actually doing nothing.

GO below . Use your common sense and use 7 or 7.5 for each IELTS exam score and Check if you get more than 445 score.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/skilled/crs-tool.asp

Historical data for points :

https://www.justforcanada.com/latest-express-entry-draws.html

If you AND your wife are above 38 or 40 yrs age and above pls don’t read further.

If you are unmarried and never worked in Canada almost forget it. You won’t be able to get the points via Express Entry. There maybe 100 other convoluted ways like Provincial Nominee and others. Go figure it out.

If you are in IT field ie either a SE , BA or in InfoSec/Audit/SOX Compliance or KPO or IT OPS you will get a job upto 80k CAD within 3 months of landing here(doesn’t matter which technology …). Because companies are made by ppl like you. Whom will they pick? A local canadian who will ask 100k above or a Indian with PR and no job ? Think..!!!

There are only 2 steps to get into Canada PR selection pool or should I say PR.

Step 1: Give General IELTS exam and pass with above 7 or higher in each section. Cost around Rs. 11,000. Yea per person. So you and your wife needs to give the exam. And if you are able to read the blog entry you ll do just fine with just 4 sample papers which they send and 4 listening exercises and just try to use pen and write couple of pages a day for 3 days or so. That’s all what is tested in IELTS. You are an Indian. You have passed 6 subjects in 6 days with less than 6 days of preparation. What hell is IELTS.

https://www.ieltsidpindia.com/Registration/Registration

Step 2 : Get your Graduation/Post-Grad marksheets attested and put in a sealed envelope and get it sent by the university to WES Canada. The attestation needs to be only by Controller or examination or Registrar and will be typically done only at University(not in college). Cost is around Rs. 20000. Yea per person. So you and your wife both need to spend 20k each for a total of around 40k. And yes courier will be typically per person around 3000. FedEx or UPS to Canada costs that much.

WES Document Requirements

If you are thinking God ..how can I go to University and get all the crap done? You love India!!!!

Total Cost before getting into the draw = 11000+11000+20000+20000+3000 = 65k. Yea cannot even get a iPhone XR with 720p Screen!!! Is this too much ? If you think yes probably you love India.

Step 1 Output is a reference number with IELTS Score. (Start to end typically 1 month)

Step 2 Output is another reference number and confirmed that your degree in India is equivalent to XYZ degree in Canada. They just want to eliminate the shady non recognized college guys from India. (Start to end typically less than 20 working days assuming you already got your sealed envelope)

Take both ref numbers, make primary applicant who is younger generally wife and there is a simple online form for Canada PR process. It will take typically less time than filling up you Tax or a Service Now Requst. Get all your work experience certificates scanned and in soft copy format with as much details like number of days per week and hours etc. Don’t worry no one India issues certificates with number of hours mentioned.

While filling up online form you have option to upload a letter of explanation. That is your golden ticket to write everything which you officially could not get like the hours worked above or the Current company work exp certificate(who wants to go to your Crap Manager and say hey I want to go to Canada Pls give me work exp certificate..). Just write in plain english in the letter of certificate whatever you want.

Upload and fill the online form and bingo . You will be in the queue to the most talked about immigrant friendly country in the world where seems from outside only Cold is the negative part !!!!!! You will learn negatives once you land here. Don’t read too much quora. Legal Mariuana Check!!!

Submit and wait ….!!!!!!!!! This is the best most exciting part !!!! Its like IRCTC tatkal booking over 1 or two or 5 months..

The excitement of waking up in night and checking the gmail for that elusive Invitation to Apply….mail.!!!!!! And to have this high for 4 months is Golden.

… Its like gambling. Al Pacino said in Two For the Money – “You know, the best part of the best drug in the world isn’t the high. It’s the moment just before you take it. The dice are dancing on the table. Between now and the time they stop, that’s the greatest high in the world.”

Guys there is a reason why below is happening. Its so simple. And Canada needs foreigners and you will get a job here.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/50-rise-in-canadian-citizenship-for-indians-this-year/articleshow/67248609.cms

Any other doubts mail me on amit.gota@gmail.com.

There will be of course lot of nitty gritties like police verification , money deposit etc etc all those are nothing and happen after you get invitation to apply.

And most important thing if you postpone.. Yea I know you have postponed for last 2 years … 5 points deducted each year at each of your birthday. And same 5 points down for your wife’s birthday. So Postpone again and say your birthday goes by you are going to be down from 445 to 440 and maybe you wait forever coz in then your wife’s birthday comes and you ll be down to 435 and you will be distraught. So postpone and at your birthday think that your 5 points have gone down.

Thanks for reading till end. If you have specific queries email me at amit.gota@gmail.com . I won’t ask you to send bitcoin before answering… But pls don’t sue me as well.

If you want to read long typical quora article here it is. Lots of detail which at start you don’t need to know else you get overwhelmed

https://www.quora.com/How-can-we-move-to-Canada-on-a-PR-basis-with-a-family


Just Dial IPO Analaysis – Absolutely Amazing Business

Just Dial IPO Analysis

This would be an analysis of Just Dial IPO which was refiled with SEBI in August 2012. The earlier one was in 2011 but was cancelled due to adverse market conditions. This post will be a bit long but worth reading because of unique business of Just Dial .

First some disclaimers– If you read this and invest in IPO when it comes out and LOSE money don’t sue me. If you make money contact me on my email/blog and I will try to take 1-2% of your Profits J (how is that for free advice). If everything fails and you really want to sue me GO ahead. This is a country where Kasab is still alive, hale and hearty, eating biryani from tax payer’s money and no sight to be hanged. What do you think you can do by suing me?

I had been an employee of Just Dial for around 9 months which was the best learning experience of my lifetime as I had the privilege to interact with Mr. Mani and his brilliant senior management team of Just Dial. This gives me unique insight in one of the really different businesses not just in India but in the whole world. There is a not a single business on the planet which works almost exactly/close to how Just Dial makes money on that scale. (Rs. 250 crores odd revenue and Rs. 50cr worth profits last yr with 0 debt and return on capital close to 40+% for last 3 years).

My analysis will be primarily based on the basic parameters on how Buffett would like to invest in a company like

If you are more of financially inclined person Financial Data and Calculations Just Dial with all the numbers and you can directly   see that pristine looking financial statements and ratios people dream of.

Here is a one line business model of Just Dial – When people need to buy something (goods or service) from some shop/business they call up Just Dial which in turn provides that data (business phone number, address) free of cost to person calling but Just Dial charges the business owners to make sure their phone number/address goes to the caller. How simple yet how difficult to beat.

I have put ratio analysis right at top so that you have a basic idea about financial strength of the company and no need believe in some kind of ‘STORY’ as it generally is with overhyped losing businesses (aka organized retail , Suzlon , Infra , DTH) .

Ratio Analysis (A dream for any CEO)

Liquidity Measurement Ratios
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
Current Ratio 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.3
Quick Ratio 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3
Days Inventory Outstanding(DIO) 0 0 0 0 0
Net Sales Per Day 1.9 2.5 3.6 5.1 7.5
Average Trade Receivables 4.2 0.5 5.6 5.4 0
Days Sales Outstanding(DSO) 2.1 0.2 1.5 1.0 0
Cost of goods sold (taking it as total expenses)/365 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.9 5.5
Average Accounts Payable 24.3 25.3 40.3 47.0 21.9
Days Payable Outstanding(DPO) 12.9 11.2 13.8 11.8 3.9
Cash Conversion Cycle = DIO+DSO-DPO -10 -11 -12 -10 -3
Profitability Indicator Ratios
Operating Profit Margin 4% 10% 21% 23% 26%
Net Profit Margin 2% 8% 14% 15% 19%
Return on Capital Employed (PAT/Total Capital) 2% 7% 15% 15% 21%
Return on Net Worth(PAT/NW) 5% 16% 29% 31% 51%
Debt Ratios
NA as it’s a debt free company
Cash Flow Ratios
Operating CF to Sales 20% 7% 26% 32% 33%
FCF Return on Net Worth 23% 0% 39% 44% 65%
FCF to Operating CF 60% 0% 72% 68% 74%
Valuation Ratios still mystery as no price declared

Read more about this amazing business and why its almost printing money with not many competitors in sight.

Critique of Daniel Kahneman – Decision Making Theories

That’s a very bad heading but I could not think of anything else .

What is evil — “ Evil is Knowing Better but doing worse “

Mr. Daniel Kahneman(the nobel winner) is one the most amazing   thinkers of modern era who has just completely changed the way we look at the world and the decisions taken by people in the world. His brilliant book(http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637 )  is a 20 times read. You can just keep reading again and again and again – discovering new things every time you do that. It makes you understand why probably you took a decision when ideally/rationally you should not have done so. So why the critique post ??

Well having read the brilliant book Thinking Fast and Slow by Mr. Daniel Kahneman I noticed something strange in every single question he had ever asked for framing his theories mostly related to monetary gambles/chance/risk taking . They  will NOT  apply completely to the thousands of Bankers, Traders, Lenders, Insurance Sellers(who are or should I say were too big) –who are taking decision under risk . The reason the theories will NOT apply is NOT because decisions are complex or theories completely wrong or they are using System 1 instead of System 2 but because the crucial elements (situations/conditions) are almost always neglected in almost all questionnaires for any psychology/logic tests undertaken by any researcher.

I searched for various of his articles and the references he himself used for writing those and  I could not find the most important factors which affect decision making under risk in real life organization/situation .

The choice of picking a decision using rational calculations or System 1(intuitive) based on prospect theory or whatever is secondary to the conditions surrounding the decision making. The conditions surrounding decision making are NEVER extraneous or too unimportant in real life.

This analysis will look at the financial risk taking while showing that  prospect theory(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prospect_theory)  cannot explain the decision making in financial world today when complete picture of conditions which leads to reckless risk taking is taken into account i.e. the incentives (bonuses), Superiors’ orders, managing other peoples’ money, too big to fail and implicit guarantee from all Central Banks around the world that you will be saved even if you completely screw up (the whole firm or consequently even the economy).

I would love if Mr. Daniel Kahneman applies all his theories of decision making to the bankers and financial industry as we know today to show how effectively it predicts the actual actions of these Lords of Finance. I am sure the theories cannot be applied to decision making of bankers which have brought terrible misery to millions around the world and amazing riches to bankers and financial institutions.(if you do not believe this stop reading!!)

I argue that what happens in REAL world more than 99% of the time when real people (almost all in some sort of organizational set up) are taking real decisions in organizations which can be observed by anybody is not explainable completely by theories like prospect/certainty effect/loss aversion/utility/System 1 or 2,  etc.

I am not a professor who can catch 50 students and give them a sheet of paper with 5 logic questions (each with 2 choices) and then extrapolate them to real life decision making. I will ask the same questions which have been asked in the book Thinking Fast and Slow  at the end of the write up. The only difference will be – I will use context/surrounding events before anyone has to decide which option to choose. The responses I am sure will be exactly normal as what happens in real life but the responses will violate most of the existing theories regarding decision making under risk.

Read the rest of this entry

Shoppers Stop Analysis – Investors in for a Low Return over long term– Guaranteed !!

(NSE 532638 | SHOPERSTOP)
Shopper’s Stop Analysis and Future Expected Returns (Investors Stop???)

Here is kind of analysis which I guarantee that you would have never read or heard anywhere else on Shoppers Stop (Organized Retail), its future growth potential limits and the expected return from point of view of equity investor in Shoppers Stop or Pantaloons or Trent (Westside).

For a better read download this Shopper’s Stop   and Data Shopper’s Stopwith data in it :

Please read the below analysis and always keep in mind the following 4 simple facts:
• Indians on an average spend close to 60% of their expenditure on FOOD.
• Organized Retail have just 1% or even less share of FOOD sales in India.
• Indians spend around 10%-11% only on clothes, beauty products and footwear.
• Almost 80%-90% of sales of Shoppers Stop or Pantaloons or Trent (Westside) are clothes , beauty , accessories and footwear products and less than 10%-15% comes from food sales and that too comes from great brands of food (Nestle-Maggi , Cold Drinks , Biscuits ,Milk products ,etc which are razor thin margin business)or commodities which are again almost zero margin products.

With the above thoughts firmly in mind here goes my analysis.

With Organized Retail currently being around 6-7% of total retail sales I am predicting that in next decade or two it will not reach even close to 18-20% of total retail sales and I’ll back it up with logic.

This prediction is completely opposite (downright negative if you want to say) compared to every single projection available in India and abroad by any institution on future of Organized Retail. The prevailing wisdom is Organized Retail will soon by 2015 or so (add 1-2 years more if you like) capture almost 15%-18% of total retail sales in India and in the process the companies like Shoppers Stop or Pantaloons or Trent (Westside) are great buys even at P/E of 35+. Again I have not seen sell ratings on any of these companies except one by Nirmal Bang. Rest all are positive on this sector as a whole factoring in years of future growth at a return on capital which is at least twice of what these companies have shown in last decade of phenomenal growth when in fact for 4-6 years credit was as cheap as air.

The consultants , analysts , investment bankers and investors may have got it all wrong in trying to figure out how much expansion can the Organized Retail logically have in India given India’s unique expenditure pattern , infrastructure , real estate and electricity situation which is completely different from anywhere in the world .

This happens because a typical person who is consultant/analyst working in a company which brings out studies on growth potential of Indian retail may have say a package of minimum 12/15 lakhs per annum and his spending is less than 10% on food but he buys jeans at Rs. 4000, shirts at 2000 ,shoes at Rs. 5000 , perfumes at 3000 , LED TV at 50000 and some furniture at 25000 from the mall and he just cannot connect with how real India spends money on even though the data is right infront of his eyes.

These guys’ brains just short circuit and use System 1 (part of type of thinking of brain which uses shortcuts to make things easy) as opposed to System 2 (which is purely rational and calculative) as explained brilliantly by Daniel Kahneman in his amazing book http://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374275637

Infact there would actually be a complete limit on how much Organized Retail can ever grow and capture the total retail expenditure in India (My guess is around from 6-7% today to 18-22% in coming 2 decades and that’s being too positive)
Read more for completely different way to look at Shoppers Stop !

Dish TV India Analysis- Bright Future ??

Dish TV India – A Critical Analysis

Why would a Senior Management Personnel Not answer what is Debt/Equity ratio of company

I was randomly just watching business news channel (whenever I want some fun I put on Biz channels in morning at around 9 AM when guys give ways to make money in next 3-4 hours!!!) and came across startling fact whereby a Dish TV senior management personnel on TV did not answer – what the debt to equity ratio of the company is and gave an evasive reply . (Early week of December)

Couple of days later I heard same thing from someone senior from a company WWIL refuse to answer the Debt to equity ratio question . It was amazing and that led me to dig a bit deep into what are these companies where the management just DOES NOT answer the most basic question – What is the Debt Equity Ratio of your Company ?

Ben Graham’s Advice

I will start off this analysis by quoting the real Guru (Benjamin Graham) who laid down rules of investment around 80 years ago which are:

 “You may take it as an axiom that you cannot profit on Wall Street (or Dalal Street) by continuously doing the obvious or the popular thing.”

“What seems to be obvious and simple to the people in Wall Street, as well as to their customers, is not really

Obvious and simple at all . You are not going to get good results in security analysis by doing the simple, obvious thing of picking out the companies that apparently have good prospects — whether it be the automobile industry, or the building industry, or any such combination of companies which almost everybody can tell you are going to enjoy good business for a number of years to come. That method is just too simple and too obvious — and the main fact about it is that it does not work well.”

  Read why Dish TV does Not have Bright future for Investors !!